Tattered Writers Athens

Like yesterday, a couple degrees cooler maybe but thunder bumpers forming over the mountains around noon, moving out onto the plains around two, most of them coming along the Parker Divide south of town. Slow moving, possibly get a lot of water dump in spots. As they move out east of the metro some severe might get cooking, with all that entails.

Same again tomorrow and the day after and day after and… But fewer bumpers.

Yesterday was a social day for us, as these things go now days. met a couple friends under the trees at the little park in Southglenn. A surprisingly pleasant spot to social distance, enjoy a bit of a morning breeze and an espresso. A coffee kiosk with a couple very pleasant and talented barristas. Several places around to order food from should you feel so moved. No restrooms, though, so a built in time limit on your stay. A number of the storefronts are empty, they were before ‘Rona. Have heard business rents here are excessive. The movie theater stands dark, can’t imagine when we’ll be able to go to a movie and on these hot days I really miss a dark, cool theater on a hot afternoon. Even a bad movie made for a great experience.

A Zoom class, on writing humor, then a Zoom happy hour with a handful of writer friends. A lot of conversation, some reading, comparing notes and worry over absent friends. With the separation, missing those face-to-face coffees that trail into stories and worries and life. Worrying over absent friends. Fears like that, I suppose, are rooted in those moments of lonely desperation when we were kids, somewhere. When all it would have taken was a word, a touch or a smile from someone to change our world. We fear our friends are there, and we don’t know to reach out to them. 

Scanning the headlines, the Orange Diaper had an Independence Day rally with fireworks and Covid up at Mount Rushmore yesterday. Did a flyby in our 747, proclaiming himself “Coolest President Ever.” Didn’t see where new fires were started by the fireworks, so that’s good. His speech sounded like any of a hundred you could pick from histories of failing nations. We live in interesting times.

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A little more excitement today, thunder bumpers developing over the foothills and moving out into the plains, starting around 2.  Not looking for severe in the metro today but they could turn that way east of us.  Sunday will be a repeat of today, a little lighter on the thunderstorms.  Still looking at 90s, triple digits starting Tuesday.

It’s kind of a trashy jet, has been for a bit and will hang that way, coming in over northern Cali then swinging north across the Tetons back into Canada. Colorado along the eastern edge of it, shifting back and forth a little day to day.  

Reading NYT this morning, virus spreading, American failures, teachers and students forced back into classrooms next month. Crowds in Dallas protesting bar closures. American exceptionalism is maybe best described as stupidity, willful ignorance has become the mark of being American.  Not too enthused about celebrating Independence Day tomorrow.

Remember when we figured a ‘Rona lull with the heat of summer? Well…

Porch report, about 66 degrees, pleasant breeze, not a cloud visible.  Two squirrels and a hummingbird, I put out a few peanuts for the squirrels.   

Today will be largely what we’ve seen. Gusty winds in the afternoon, less so up around Fort C, developing some mid-level clouds around noon. A bit more moisture so we might see a few rain showers floating around the metro. Not a lot. Bumpers out east around Limon-Fort Morgan, maybe a few getting to severe out that way.  

Friday about the same.  Saturday—the forth—there will be more moisture and we’ll see scattered thunderstorms for the afternoon in the metro.  We’ll hit highs in the 90s for the foreseeable future.  Maybe even triple digits late next week.  

Yeah, not much. Again. Sunshine, a few clouds in the afternoon and gusty winds after 1, a little earlier up in the Fort C area. Might see some gusts over 30 around the Palmer Divide. In the mountains a chance for some showers South Park-Idaho Springs, but nothing out here, east of the mountains, until nearly Kansas. Chance of some severe bumpers along the border. Dry, hot, wind, fire danger high. We’ll see some lower level clouds in the evening, but nothing falling on us. 

Again tomorrow. A little moisture showing Friday so might see thunder bumpers then. Looks like this is how the next seven days will run.  

469 in dog years, really? Dang. Well, I guess Hick won the primary so we’re looking at Biden & Hick at the top of our ticket in November. About the least passion-inspiring ticket you could do for all those people who put feet on the ground and make the noise needed going into an election. But we’ll have to get out there and do it anyway, we have to build the passion. It’s the first shuffling step in the long trek back to what this country needs to be.

Almost boring, isn’t it?  A lot like yesterday, there is a chance we’ll see a couple thunderstorms develop along the front range around noon and move to the northeast, but more likely just be a few cumulous doing that. A line of gusty wind—nothing that will peel chrome off a trailer hitch—going through early afternoon, it may persist a bit.  

The jet stream is right over us, from the south headed into Montana.  A few surface disturbances meandering around but doesn’t look like anything worth waving arms about through the next week. Cooler today, highs mid-80s, then 90s for the next 7 days.  More blue skies than not, maybe some clouds Friday.  

Boring, right?  Could generate a lot of words around it, here’s a piece of NOAA’s take;  “….Immediately following this band of light showers will be stronger westerly winds that mix down to the surface with the assistance from the subsident flow on the back side of the line of vorticity…” Oh well.

Started a good book this morning, my daughter, Whitney, recommended. it took interlibrary loan to get it. It’s academic, a philosophy text so a little sticky, but intuitively hitting the notes I’ve been wrestling around in these ending days of American empire. How did we not know where the hell we were going, how did we let this happen, that kind of thing. Worth a look;  “Habits of Whiteness”, Terrance Macmullan.  

Sitting on the porch, only one squirrel this morning. Reading the Times, the horror story building in Houston. Sigh. Here it’s a little breezy this morning, we’ve got eight or ten miles per down this way. Maybe a bit more at roof top. As forecast out of the southwest. Not quite as much up toward Boulder this morning, and oddly less out at DIA. South end is going to get the wind this time, some gusty stuff forecast for around noon along this side of the Parker Divide, maybe up to 25-30, but not up the north end.  Warm, mid-90s today, might see some triple digits out to the east.  We’re on the east side of that deep upper trough, so the flow will be pretty dry today and we won’t see much in the way of bumpers this afternoon. Fire danger to the east of us, of course.  

The upper trough from the west is forecast to hit northwest Colorado tomorrow morning, pushing along a surface cold front, and it’ll bring some moisture in with it at altitude.  At the surface, though, that cold front will bring westerly winds on the surface during the hot period, so nothing to drag the moisture down.  Right now it looks like we won’t see a lot of thunder bumpers out of this on Tuesday.  Chances of precipitation less than 20%. It’s kind of on the edge with all this, a little wiggle in the front could cause something to happen, but it seems unlikely at this point.  

Wednesday dry and hot, looks like 90s for the next stretch of forever. Best shot on some rain will be Sunday.

Radar loop 11:40-12:35

Sat in the unfortunately named Harvard Gulch Park yesterday with some friends, socially distancing assiduously, and the gusty winds didn’t materialize. It was right just about nearly more perfect.  Another one today, a little warmer.  Possibly some high level bumpers after 3 in the metro, not many and we won’t get much water from them.  Hot, low to mid 90s might make triple digits out east of the metro.

Monday more of the same, some gusty winds possible especially out toward Elbert/Lincoln County increasing fire danger.  Southwesterly flow aloft because we’re still on the east side of that big upper trough pushing from the west coast.  A surface cold front will swing through late Monday cooling it down a bit for the night.

Tuesday, still a little mixed up.  We’ll be on the leading edge of that big upper trough pushing in from the west, the cold front that went through will bring a little more moisture to the mix, and the trough circulation may begin dragging a little gulf coast stuff in at the upper level, possibly pulling all the way to the metro.  Maybe.  So, maybe we’ll see some real thunderstorms Tuesday, maybe not. As we get a little closer, get the afternoon soundings, should be able to call it.  

And Windy has stormy eyes, 

That flash at the sound of lies 

It’s going to be Windy’s afternoon. We’re looking at gusts getting up to 45 around the metro between 3 and 7pm, starting earlier, of course, in Boulder and a little later out away from the foothills. That’s knots, so 50MPH on the speedo.  Theres going to be a few thunder bumpers, high based ones, moving around but not so many, nothing throwing hail at your begonias. Unless you lie a lot, so take it easy?  Wait, that’s another song.

Five-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. And maybe that many degrees cooler today than Sunday will be. That line with the wind and a few bumpers will go though this afternoon and leave a lot of dry behind.  There’s a ridge of high pressure pushing in, so southwesterly flow aloft bringing us some of that desert heat Phoenix decided to pandemic in.  Probably won’t see much storm stuff Sunday.  

Fire weather Monday, hot and windy out on the plains.  We’ll see a little gusty stuff along the Palmer Divide, that’s Park Meadows-Highlands Ranch-ish. 

Tuesday’s a crapshoot.  A lot of complex stuff happening at the surface and aloft, the ridge moving out being replaced by a trough (kinda how it works up there), a cold front fiddling around on the surface.  If that all wiggles a little this way it could give a downslope flow and no moisture, not many storms.  Wiggles a little that way and it will draw gulf moisture and more storms. 

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Cue Jaws theme, the first video is a radar loop up to 1235, the second is forecast to 2:15.